Election 2011: Dispelling the Myths



Martin: Still Fighting



      1. Fianna Fail are now destroyed as a party.

Rubbish. So they suffered the worst defeat in their history, so they were so utterly beaten out of Dublin, so their leadership reshuffle failed to have the presumed ‘bounce’ effect many thought it would, they are still the party to beat. Fine Gael have not been catapulted into power on the back of having a charismatic leader, they haven’t been ushered in with a popular mandate, or even a realistic manifesto. Their return to power is a negative vote for Fianna Fail; it is a concerted turn away from FF and a swing towards the ‘other’ big party, Fine Gael. FG will reap the benefits for the next few months, maybe even a year but when it turns out that their policies aren’t actually that popular, or perhaps, effective, there will be momentum towards finding a credible alternative. FF’s big loses have been to the Labour Party and to Sinn Fein, grassroots organisations that offer an ideology and candidates with a track record of results at a grassroots level, and this is where they may be permanently damaged. The votes which have swung to FG will trickle back and forth, but the votes lost to the socialist parties may stay lost, and this is the big result of this election.

2.       A Sinn Fein Victory is a Victory for Nationalism

The Sinn Fein Party in Northern Ireland and the Sinn Fein Party in the Republic are practically two different political organisations with two manifestos and two different candidate lists. The organisation in the Republic sticks mainly to socialist rhetoric and works a lot with community groups, football teams, schools, looking after people grievances on the ground, working on promoting the party as an organisation that still lives among the people and works for the people. In the north they have been able to get by on nationalistic policies but here they have to know a lot more about the basic economics of the country, as Gerry Adams learned, and have a clear vision for economic recovery. Sinn Fein’s main problem has been their ties to physical force republicanism, Gerry Adams leadership, which in the republic has angered many who view him as a murderer, and the fact that their manifesto is populist, not that well researched and ultimately, unrealistic. They are not a far right party, they are a community based party attached to some unsavoury characters but a vote for them is not the Irish alternative as a vote for the BNP or Front National.

3.        Enda Kenny will be an embarrassment as Taoiseach

This I can’t really call a myth yet but I’ll try dispelling it nonetheless. Granted Enda is not the most popular leader in the country, he is not the wittiest, nor the most handsome, nor even the smartest; however he has some redeeming features. He is currently the longest serving TD still in office having succeeded his father as TD for Mayo in 1975 and has a wealth of backbench experience working his way up the party ladder, serving as Chief Whip for a while and even serving as Minister for Tourism and Trade from 1994-1997, before his election as leader of Fine Gael in 2002. He is as articulate as Brian Cowan, and certainly more so that Bertie Ahern, and he is far more presentable and telegenic than Cowan. He will be surrounded by a good group of advisors, including former Fine Gael leader Michael Noonan, so his tendency to seek the ‘Hollywood’ speech should be dampened down and a concentration on the humdrum of governance should endear him to the population. Maybe.