Friday, March 25, 2011

Sunday, March 13, 2011

No Fly Zone a No Go Zone?


Protesters Call for a No Fly Zone

As the situation in Libya begins to take on the look of a bitter civil war than an uprising against a despot the leaders of the global community disagree sharply on what action to take. The phrase 'No Fly Zone' has been banded about as if it were an easy imposition rather than a declaration of military intervention in a still sovereign state. Is there a will to intervene in Libya? If so from who? Which actors could conceivably put boots on the ground and who would it serve?

The most obvious answer to the first question is no, there is no great desire among any of the states capable of intervening, to intervene. France and the UK seem to talk a good fight, but with British troops unpopularly involved in Afghanistan and both countries still viewed as neo-colonialists by many in North Africa, their involvement against Gaddafi's forces would only fuel his rhetoric against the West and reinforce his view that he is the defender of Africa, the defender of Islam. The USA is in a difficult position as well, with American public opinion seemingly against further military intervention in the Middle East, and Obama unwilling, it seems to have his forces bogged down in an unwinnable war, just as Clinton's were in Somalia.

The will to intervene is coming almost solely from the Libyan opposition and the Arab League, who have just passed a resolution supporting the imposition of a No Fly Zone by the UN, recognising the Libyan opposition, the National Libyan Council, as the legitimate government. But who will it serve and who will impose the restrictions. Clearly the big question is oil,since the beginning of the current crisis oil prices in Europe have risen immensely and this may drive intervention, if only to restore stability and keep the oil flowing. This is not essentially a humanitarian issue for the Western powers, if Gaddafi offers the best chance of stability they will support him, providing it won't negatively affect their own moral legitimacy. The Arab League is eager to see foreign intervention in Libya, believing if they sacrifice Gaddafi and involve non-Muslim, non-Arab military forces it will quieten the protests simmering in their own countries. the only organisation which could put boots on the ground is NATO, but they must chose a side first, and one suspects they are waiting to see how successful Gaddafi's current counter attack is, waiting to see how strong his actual support base is, before they back a side.

Monday, March 7, 2011

Saturday, March 5, 2011

The Economic Roots of the Recent Rumbles


Blair with Gaddafi

"Democracy don't rule the world, You'd better get that in your head; This world is ruled by violence, But I guess that's better left unsaid"
Bob Dylan : American folksinger, b.1941
Digging deeper than the Domino: A look at the economic realities in the Middle East

Libya on the Brink: Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?




Some reasons military intervention in Libya is rapidly becoming an option for the US and Europe


It seems like non-intervention is not an option for the CIA in Libya

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/spy-talk/2011/03/libya_what_should_cia_be_doing.html

Friday, March 4, 2011

Cold, White and Sociable


The Dutch...Just Being Sociable
Gallup Poll analysis of social cohesion and engagement and community and family networks. Basically all you need to be is Northern European or Anglo-Saxon. Easy

http://www.realclearworld.com/topic/global_prosperity_analysis/view_all.php?content_id=136

Small Changes for Small Change




Article 29.5.2 of The Irish Constitution:
“The State shall not be bound by any international agreement involving a charge upon public funds unless the terms of the agreement shall have been approved by Dáil Éireann”.

IMF changes slightly reduce Irish interest rates

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0304/breaking18.html

The Arab Spring



The seeds sown during these past few weeks will bloom in the coming years.

http://www.thenation.com/article/158991/arab-spring

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Boeing's Bumper Payday


Boeing P12 at Takeoff


Story behind the awarding of a $35billion defence contract to Boeing

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/boeing_boondoggle_pork_can_fly_20110301/

New EU Guidelines for Financial Assistance


New Eurozone deal laid out by the offices of the Presidents of both the Commision and the Council.

http://www.euronews.net/business-newswires/768759-eu-document-lays-out-options-for-march-euro-zone-deal/

As reported in the Irish Times and the Irish Independent

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0301/breaking34.html

http://eupolitics.einnews.com/news.php?nid=240530

Down the Black Hole of Debt

The Incoming Governments Big Job


New York Times piece mentioning Enda Kenny's Friday meeting with Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/opinion/02wed2.html?ref=opinion

Kenny's pledge in victory:

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Carthage: Romes Ancient Nemesis



In keeping with the theme of Hannibal, here's a podcast from The History Network on Carthage.

http://thehistorynetwork.org/military/2011/01/31/908-carthage/#more-70

Shining a Light on History’s Forgotten People: 2. Hannibal of Carthage

Hannibal's Army in Battle
Born around 248 BC to Hamil Barca (whose family, incidentally give their name to the modern city of Barcelona), Hannibal would go on to distinguish himself as one of the greatest military commanders to ever walk the European battlefields, becoming the scourge of the Roman Republic and, briefly, champion of those Rome sought to subjugate.
Carthage, a large and commercially powerful Republic, with Phoenician origins, had its capital city in modern day Tunisia and lands that stretched from Spain, all along the coast of North Africa almost to modern day Benghazi in Libya and included the islands of Sardinia and Corsica. Constantly engaged with the emerging and overtly militaristic Roman Republic, Carthage, primarily a sea-faring and trade based Republic with less interest in military conquest, found itself, after fighting the Three Sicilian Wars and, between 264 and 241 the First Punic War, very much the dominated state. The latter war was a direct conflict between the two Republics over control of the Mediterranean and was a resounding victory for the Romans, destroying the seemingly more powerful Carthaginian fleet with innovative technology and superior infantry numbers. In the aftermath of the victory, Rome seized both Sardinia and Corsica and levied a huge war indemnity on the North Africans. It was into this that Hannibal was born, into the Barcid family, a warrior family based in Spain and committed to expanding Carthage’s Hispanic possessions.
He grew up a soldier in his father’s army, indoctrinated into hating Rome and pledging his life to their downfall, while all the while learning his trade, steeling his nerves for the battles to come. Following his Father’s death and his brother-in-laws assassination, Hannibal became the Strategus of Iberia, giving him a vast amount of power over the silver mines of the region, thus increasing his ability to keep a well-equipped personal standing army, a scenario which was view suspiciously in Carthage. With two years of expansionist warfare, including defying previous treaties by the retaking of lands held by Rome, he had made quite a name for himself and his fame in Carthage was only matched by his notoriety in Rome. Although the Senate in Carthage didn’t agree with his unilateral expansionist policy, they were powerless to stop him, especially as he was so popular and the Romans so hated. In 218BC Hannibal started his journey into Southern Gaul. His army number around 40,000 soldiers, 12,000 on horseback and around 37 war elephants, unseen before by the Gaulic tribes he came across, some of whom joined him, others chose to fight him and were easily defeated. The passage from Gaul through to modern day Italy along the coast was heavily defended both on land and by sea so Hannibal chose to march his army into Italy through a route the Romans had never thought possible with such a large force. Hannibal’s march through the Alps is probably his most well-known feat so I wish here to concentrate on what he did upon arrival in Northern Italy, in particular three battles against Roman forces.
His first encounter in the field was at the Battle of Trebia against the consuls Publius Cornelius Scipio, whose son was to become Scipio Africanus, and Tiberius Sempronius Longus. Reinforced by a Gallic uprising against Roman rule, Hannibal’s army outflanked the Romans and, with their backs to the river and fleeing, affected a massacre upon their numbers. Historian Sir Walter Raleigh blames the Roman loss on the incompetence of Tiberius Longus claiming that he “made no discovery of the place upon which he fought, whereby he was grossly overreached, and ensnared, by the ambush which Hannibal had laid for him”. The public reaction in Rome was understandably one of shock and fear; they had been beaten on land by a coalition of two of their old enemies; Celts and Carthaginians. With winter coming on and his position in Northern Italy secure, Hannibal settled until spring, whereupon he would once again terrorize the Romans.
Early 1917, two new Roman consuls, Cnaeus Servilius and Gaius Flaminius, were dispatched to block the Eastern and Western routes of Hannibals expected march on Rome, the Romans again presumptuous that he wouldn’t march through the central route at eh mouth of the Arno, a marchland of bog and flooded plain, which of course he did march through, losing an eye to conjunctivitis in the process. Although he lost many men on the march, and all his elephants, he had emerged round the other side of Flaminius’ line and proceeded to harass him into giving battle, a battle which the Roman was reluctant to join. He cut off his retreat passage to Rome, burned villages loyal to him, and, after executing the first recorded turning maneuver in military history, lured him into giving chase past the shore of Lake Trasimenus. The ambush that followed killed Flaminus and a huge portion of his men, drowned or otherwise dispatched, as Hannibal was now free to advance on Rome.
The arrival of Fabius Maximus saw the period of shadowing Hannibal’s army with smaller forces, harassing him and moving away, letting him devastate the countryside, aware that he had no siege engines to attack Rome. In Spring 216 Hannibal captured the supply depot at Cannae, positioning his army between it and Rome, cutting off one of the city’s major supply routes. In response, the Romans, now under consuls Gaius Terentius Varro and Lucius Aemilius Paullus raised an army considered massive for the time, said to be between 80,000 and 100,000 men. The battlefield chosen at Cannae was a clearing in a wooded area, giving advantage to a smaller force. Hannibal spread his line thin and long, with his famed Numidian cavalry on the right. The cavalry proceeded to smash through the Roman flanks as they lead the body of the army in a massive envelopment maneuver, surrounding the Romans so as to leave the bulk of their forces stuck in to centre of the mass, unable to have any effect on the battle. The Carthaginian army then proceeded to massacre the Romans from the outside in, killing or capturing around 70,000 men, including many senators and men of import. Cannae has been called the greatest military defeat in Roman history and led to a massive overhaul of the Roman mindset.
Unfortunately what seemed to be Hannibal’s crowning glory was not capitalized on. The Senate back in Carthage refused to send reinforcements and, after twelve more years of devastating the Italian countryside with a diminishing army and trying to find Roman armies to fight, Hannibal fled Italy for Carthage. The Romans had taken the lessons of their defeats to heart and, when they launch the Second Punic War against Carthage in 203BC they were again a far superior fighting force, with Scipio Africanus defeating Hannibal at the battle of Zama, ending the war in favour of the Romans.
Hannibal left a legacy not only to the people of Carthage but, perhaps more importantly from our point of view, to the Romans. Men like Julius Caesar would have studied Hannibals tactics and used the treachery of the Gauls as a pretext for spreading Roman rule into modern day France and beyond, altering the make-up of European civilization. To most modern Military historians he was a general matched only by Alexander the Great.

China and US Growth, Region by Region




http://www.economist.com/content/chinese_equivalents

Chinas growth and current economic position vis-a-vis the rest of the world.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/01/comparing_us_states_countries

And here's a similar one for the USA.

British View on EU/IMF Bailout Deal




http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/519231-europe-give-irish-break

Observer agues for the EU to support the new Irish Government, rather than punish it. 

Murdered Bahrain Protesters Deserve Justice

http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2011/02/28/bahrain-hold-perpetrators-crackdown-accountable

Bahrain Protests
Human Rights Watch recomnedations for political reform in Bahrian: Hold those who murdered protesters responsible.

US Media and the Curveball Disclosures

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27583.htm

"The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is
to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion,
but allow very lively debate within that spectrum."
Noam Chomsky

Discusses the failure of the US media to publish the revelations that the main source of intelligence linking Saddam to WMDs was in fact lying, and that his story was discounted by both British and German intelligence well before the invasion.