No Fly Zone a No Go Zone?

Protesters Call for a No Fly Zone

As the situation in Libya begins to take on the look of a bitter civil war than an uprising against a despot the leaders of the global community disagree sharply on what action to take. The phrase 'No Fly Zone' has been banded about as if it were an easy imposition rather than a declaration of military intervention in a still sovereign state. Is there a will to intervene in Libya? If so from who? Which actors could conceivably put boots on the ground and who would it serve?

The most obvious answer to the first question is no, there is no great desire among any of the states capable of intervening, to intervene. France and the UK seem to talk a good fight, but with British troops unpopularly involved in Afghanistan and both countries still viewed as neo-colonialists by many in North Africa, their involvement against Gaddafi's forces would only fuel his rhetoric against the West and reinforce his view that he is the defender of Africa, the defender of Islam. The USA is in a difficult position as well, with American public opinion seemingly against further military intervention in the Middle East, and Obama unwilling, it seems to have his forces bogged down in an unwinnable war, just as Clinton's were in Somalia.

The will to intervene is coming almost solely from the Libyan opposition and the Arab League, who have just passed a resolution supporting the imposition of a No Fly Zone by the UN, recognising the Libyan opposition, the National Libyan Council, as the legitimate government. But who will it serve and who will impose the restrictions. Clearly the big question is oil,since the beginning of the current crisis oil prices in Europe have risen immensely and this may drive intervention, if only to restore stability and keep the oil flowing. This is not essentially a humanitarian issue for the Western powers, if Gaddafi offers the best chance of stability they will support him, providing it won't negatively affect their own moral legitimacy. The Arab League is eager to see foreign intervention in Libya, believing if they sacrifice Gaddafi and involve non-Muslim, non-Arab military forces it will quieten the protests simmering in their own countries. the only organisation which could put boots on the ground is NATO, but they must chose a side first, and one suspects they are waiting to see how successful Gaddafi's current counter attack is, waiting to see how strong his actual support base is, before they back a side.