Behind Enemy Lines

A British soldiers account of the 'Troubles' in Northern Ireland

http://www.historytoday.com/patrick-mercer/northern-ireland-troubles-holding-ring

Iranian Myths

Excellent insight into the rumours surrounding the role of Iran in the Middle East

http://newamericamedia.org/2011/05/debunking-the-top-7-myths-on-irans-middle-east-policies.php

The Queen's Visit

Lessson from the visit of Queen Elizabeth II to Ireland

President McAleese greets the Queen

1. Whatever your views on the role of the monarchy, or your particular opinions on the House of Windsor, it must be said that the choreography of the visit, and indeed the choice of destinations, has been absolutely top notch. By visiting the Garden of Remembrance first she was acknowledging the primary reason for the abnormal relations between the two countries and she was humbling herself at the shrine of another countries fallen dead, a huge number of whom were killed at the hands of forces under the command of her family. The solemnity of the wreath laying ceremony and the poignancy of playing 'God Save the Queen' was a tour de force in ice-breaking and set the tone for the rest of the visit. The Islandbridge ceremony was just as important, and so vital in highlighting the sacrifice of the brave men who sacrificed both life and reputation by joining the crown forces. In this way she was repaying their loyalty by ensuring not only that they were recognised on this visit but that they were afforded equal status as those who died fighting for Irish freedom. The Croke Park trip was a homage not only to a green patch of Irish history but also to the largest and possibly most influential Gaelic, or Irish, organisation in the world. It was a recognition of the individuality and the vibrancy of Gaelic Ireland, a recognition of an Irish historical tradition that has nothing to do with her realm and is community based in structure.

2. The noisy minority were just that. Barely worth a mention and, although the police security cordons were protocol and precautionary, hardly worth a watchful eye. More a nuisance that any sort of a real representation they just served to put the city on lock down and ensure that the Queen wouldn't get to meet any regular Irish people.

3. Mary McAleese has proved to be a fine stateswoman and an excellent representative of the whole island. Hailing, as she does from Belfast, and always looking to include the Queens northern subjects in Dublin functions, she has been an excellent host and facilitator during this visit, and she will be a hard act to follow.

4. The tones of both the President's, and the Queen's, speeches was bang on the money; recognition, regret, reflection and a look towards the future co-operation between the two countries.

5. Sinn Fein missed out by absenting themselves. Politically I don't know how well it would have gone, within their own constituencies, for either Adams or McGuinness to be seen shaking hands with a Windsor, but in terms of a worldwide audience now it seems like they are the stubborn 'no' men, refusing to recognise the realities of modern politics.

The Queen and President McAleese at the Garden of Remembrance

6. Prince Phillip is a spring chicken at 90. I think history may remember him as a gaffe-prone husband of Elizabeth, always lagging a few paces behind, looking forlornly like he's just been scolded but lets not forget the work he does for young people in the UK and, as he proved adressing the recipients of the Presidents award, the interest he takes in the capacity of young people to achieve their potential. 

7. What was all the fuss about? She should come over more often, have everyone dress up and fell like there's no economic crisis and show the remaining physical force republicans up to be outdated.

The Bail-Out Debate rumbles On



Irelands bail-out is proving disasterous for economic development 

 Morgan Kelly's pessimistic/realistic view in the Irish Times on Saturday
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0507/1224296372123.html

reaction from John Bruton in disagreement with Kelly

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0510/1224296602550.html?via=mr

Irish Democracy?

State of the Nation:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/gene-kerrigan/gene-kerrigan-transfer-of-power-now-truly-complete-2607419.html

An Inauspicious Union

Kenny and Gilmore

Coalition agreed on by FG and Labour

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0306/breaking1.html

Small Changes for Small Change

Article 29.5.2 of The Irish Constitution:

“The State shall not be bound by any international agreement involving a charge upon public funds unless the terms of the agreement shall have been approved by Dáil Éireann”.

IMF changes slightly reduce Irish interest rates

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0304/breaking18.html

New EU Guidelines for Financial Assistance

New Eurozone deal laid out by the offices of the Presidents of both the Commision and the Council.

http://www.euronews.net/business-newswires/768759-eu-document-lays-out-options-for-march-euro-zone-deal/

As reported in the Irish Times and the Irish Independent

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0301/breaking34.html

http://eupolitics.einnews.com/news.php?nid=240530

Down the Black Hole of Debt

http://www.financialregulator.ie/press-area/Documents/Information%20Release%20Note%20and%20Table%20Senior%20and%20Sub%20Debt.doc.pdf

ICB reveals that Irish Banks owe 63.4billion euro. Information that would surely have been useful before the government guaranteed a blanket bail-out.

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/central-bank-reveals-full-extent-of-banks-bond-liabilities-2011-3/

The Incoming Governments Big Job

New York Times piece mentioning Enda Kenny's Friday meeting with Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/opinion/02wed2.html?ref=opinion

Kenny's pledge in victory:

British View on EU/IMF Bailout Deal

http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/519231-europe-give-irish-break

Observer agues for the EU to support the new Irish Government, rather than punish it. 

As The Dust Settles

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0228/breaking2.html

It seems implausible with so few seats needed to from a majority that FG would look to a party who strongly oppose many of their main election promises to from a coalition. Equally it would be a mistake for the Labour party to give up on the chance to lead a strong socialist opposition and become a minority partner in a government that is destined for troubling times. Perhaps it's a case for Enda Kenny of having Labour in the tent pissing out rather than outside pissing in.

Election 2011: Dispelling the Myths



Martin: Still Fighting



      1. Fianna Fail are now destroyed as a party.

Rubbish. So they suffered the worst defeat in their history, so they were so utterly beaten out of Dublin, so their leadership reshuffle failed to have the presumed ‘bounce’ effect many thought it would, they are still the party to beat. Fine Gael have not been catapulted into power on the back of having a charismatic leader, they haven’t been ushered in with a popular mandate, or even a realistic manifesto. Their return to power is a negative vote for Fianna Fail; it is a concerted turn away from FF and a swing towards the ‘other’ big party, Fine Gael. FG will reap the benefits for the next few months, maybe even a year but when it turns out that their policies aren’t actually that popular, or perhaps, effective, there will be momentum towards finding a credible alternative. FF’s big loses have been to the Labour Party and to Sinn Fein, grassroots organisations that offer an ideology and candidates with a track record of results at a grassroots level, and this is where they may be permanently damaged. The votes which have swung to FG will trickle back and forth, but the votes lost to the socialist parties may stay lost, and this is the big result of this election.

2.       A Sinn Fein Victory is a Victory for Nationalism

The Sinn Fein Party in Northern Ireland and the Sinn Fein Party in the Republic are practically two different political organisations with two manifestos and two different candidate lists. The organisation in the Republic sticks mainly to socialist rhetoric and works a lot with community groups, football teams, schools, looking after people grievances on the ground, working on promoting the party as an organisation that still lives among the people and works for the people. In the north they have been able to get by on nationalistic policies but here they have to know a lot more about the basic economics of the country, as Gerry Adams learned, and have a clear vision for economic recovery. Sinn Fein’s main problem has been their ties to physical force republicanism, Gerry Adams leadership, which in the republic has angered many who view him as a murderer, and the fact that their manifesto is populist, not that well researched and ultimately, unrealistic. They are not a far right party, they are a community based party attached to some unsavoury characters but a vote for them is not the Irish alternative as a vote for the BNP or Front National.

3.        Enda Kenny will be an embarrassment as Taoiseach

This I can’t really call a myth yet but I’ll try dispelling it nonetheless. Granted Enda is not the most popular leader in the country, he is not the wittiest, nor the most handsome, nor even the smartest; however he has some redeeming features. He is currently the longest serving TD still in office having succeeded his father as TD for Mayo in 1975 and has a wealth of backbench experience working his way up the party ladder, serving as Chief Whip for a while and even serving as Minister for Tourism and Trade from 1994-1997, before his election as leader of Fine Gael in 2002. He is as articulate as Brian Cowan, and certainly more so that Bertie Ahern, and he is far more presentable and telegenic than Cowan. He will be surrounded by a good group of advisors, including former Fine Gael leader Michael Noonan, so his tendency to seek the ‘Hollywood’ speech should be dampened down and a concentration on the humdrum of governance should endear him to the population. Maybe.

Emigration: The Choice of A New Generation

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/20/ireland-recession-students-emigrate

It seems that regardless of the outcome of the upcoming election, the tap has been opened once more, hundreds, if not thousands just sick of the cyclical disillusionment that is the Irish economy and the Irish Political system.

The Pretenders to the Cup of Hemlock

What choice then? We have before us, and partially behind us, the biggest single economic crisis this state has faced, threatening, as it does, the very fabric of our independence and indeed the financial viability of the state. The choice we are presented with is vast and narrow, all at the same time; we are being given the opportunity to put in power the party and the policies that will have to operate within such constraints as the current fiscal crisis allows it to. We are tasked with sifting through the electioneering, the humdrum and the tedious, the downright brassballed (in the case of former Fianna Fail ministers with very selective memories on their own ‘war’ records) and deciding upon a government doomed to be stillborn, fated to oversee at least four years of ‘living within our means’, four years of austerity, emigration, unemployment, debt repayment, mortgage default, problems arising from inevitable public service cuts, and downright anger as daily emerges the incompetency’s of our ruling class. Why would anyone want these jobs, who are the people who once more leap the trench wall and traverse no man’s land for this bounty, and what are their objectives? This final question is quite telling indeed because, aside from the obvious answer of nationalist pride and civic duty, the question bears deeper analysis. The role of the elected official in Ireland seems quite undesirable yet the fight for seats is fierce once more, just as it was in the boom times, we must ask, in this case then, what do these people hope to achieve, do they have a vision for realistic and sustainable change or they seek power for its own sake, blindly herding themselves into the abyss.

The major power players in the coming election are a list of three, with cameos and walk on players impacting to a considerable degree. The current governmental incumbents, Fianna Fail have presided over the past thirteen years of economic hand gliding, through currency change, a peep show policy of financial regulation and a pair of leaden boots provided, rather eagerly, by the IMF and the EU. The main contenders to their throne, locked in a constant finger pointing bonanza upon the plain of higher moral ground are Fine Gael, the perennial ‘other’ in this estranged marriage, which also produced another, more notorious than popular, political party, Sinn Fein. Added to the mix we have the third major player, the oldest political party in the state, one who never recovered from not contesting the election of 1919, one who never found itself able to rise above either the Civil War political divide or the bully boy tactics of the Catholic Church, the Labour party. Cameos will included the once and never in the future kings, the aforementioned Sinn Fein, two parties in fact, a hydra with claws in Northern Ireland and a forced smile in the Republic, the lighter shade of green Greens, still reeling from the sight of actual dealings on the shop floor, and various spattering’s of workers parties and ‘people against profit’ alliances. Honourable mention must go to Independents, king makers in waiting, their time will come before the battle is over.

But now to FF, the politburo of Irish politics, a party who since its formation in 1932, have been in power for sixty one of the previous seventy nine years, surely it can do no wrong? Their most recent stint in power came into being in 1997 with the election of Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach, and the formation of a cabinet which included Brian Cowen and Micheal Martin, as well as another party, the Progressive Democrats, lapsed Fianna Failers themselves, and continued through successful title fights in 2002 and 2007 where they added the Green Party to their coalition of the willing. It’s a far too well beaten drum to explain what happened in between that heady summer of 1997 and the current impasse we find ourselves at, however suffice to say, jobs were not done, stations were not manned, and financial regulation was not a priority for anybody, or so it seemed. So now we find ourselves with FF the only members of a minority government, headed by a former minister while the country is effectively being led by a member of that minister’s party who is his former boss and current underling. Ridiculous? Exactly. And Mr Martin, the current darling of the FF pack, a former minister for education and science, health and children, enterprise, trade and employment, and foreign affairs, is quite eager to distance himself from his former boss, portraying himself as a new voice, a new direction for the country, despite the key briefs he held during the years of recklessness. So why does he want the job? He has seen the damage it did to the credibility of both Ahern and Cowan; he must see it as an unwinnable war, considering he is party to the facts and figures of economic projection. One thinks it must be the career politician in him that sees service of the state as an ultimate goal, an achievement in itself, regardless of the practicalities of this service. Other ministers who served in the governments of the past decade have quietly slipped out the back door, albeit with reputations shattered, and one must grudgingly admire Martin for staying to fight for a party that maybe he believes in, if nobody else does.

Fine Gael can trace their lineage back to Michael Collins and the first Prime Minister of the Irish Free State, W.T. Cosgrave. But that’s where the romance ends, that’s where majesty stalls and after a resounding victory in the civil war, that is where civil war politics comes to consume FG and all of their efforts since. Like FF, FG is traditionally socially conservative and has a tendency to turn a blind eye cronyism and nepotism within the apparatus of the state. However, unlike FF, and crucially for this period in question, FG didn’t have a particularly cosy relationship with either the banking sector or the construction sector, the Chuckle Brothers of the Irish financial crisis. To what extent the economy would have been run better under a FG government is debatable, and ultimately pointless. Lead by Enda Kenny since 2002, FG have sat steaming on the opposition benches as FF strolled to 3 victories in a row without really have clear policies other than ‘a lot done, more to do’. Coasting on the popularity of Mr Ahern, FF swept all before them, in stark contrast with the public perception of Kenny as a bumbling school principle with a whine for a voice and a parliamentary demeanour of a perpetually wronged man, driven mad by the relentless waves of victories FF seemed to have, while he had to suffer lucklessly, challenged from within his party and without. Having consolidated his power within his own party he now looks to have a positive and far reaching manifesto on the table, limiting the options for voters who don’t want to vote for him just because, well, they don’t like him. Why does Kenny seek a seat of power which will surely cement his position as the man most people love to hate, a seat of governance so constrained by the baggage of bailout that the only manifesto plausible is one of cuts and public protest? Fine Gaels only reason for existence is the pursuit of their strain of policy, their thinking on the correct form of democracy we should have, and rightly so, for a party which contests election without a clear strategy for victory is merely timewasting, in most circumstances. Elected to Dail Eireann at the age of 24, the Son of a former incumbent TD in his Mayo constituency, Kenny, as the chosen leader, has risen up the ranks of the party serving as both Minister for Tourism and Trade and Minister of State for Youth Affairs, as well as being the parties Chief Whip. He floated between front and back benches for over two decades before, almost by default, he won a leadership contest which nobody seemed eager to win, such was the doldrums FG were in at the time. His grabbing of the nettle of power and subsequent fearlessness when facing a seemingly untouchable Ahern in parliament won him plaudits from the anti-FF brigade, eager to see a rival of some strength. Politics is all he has known, his father infected him with the FG bug, the mantra that government is the rightful domain of FG, regardless of how or when it is obtained, you go into politics to get into government, bend policy to your wants, the needs of your party. It is with this wasp buzzing in his ear that Kenny has plodded towards the places of power, having fallen into his father’s seat as a young man, taken the FG reins as an underdog, he could now lead the country at a time when it neither really wants him, nor really needs him.

The Labour Party is a mixed bag of unusual delights and occasional horror stories. They have found themselves in their recent history constant saddled with the role of FG’s partners in opposition, and government, a role that ideologically has never and will never suit them. They always display well with regards, to public perception to their manifestos, they always pick the populist side with regards major issues, they always seem on the cusp of breaking the two party monopoly, the Scottish League syndrome, of the Dail, and yet people still vote the way their family voted last time, and the time before that. So entrenched are traditions among the voting habits of even the most educated of people that one really must look back at 1919 and see it as an opportunity for an alternative lost. Lead this time by the old Trade Unionist Eamon Gilmore, they are expected to chip considerable away at the monopoly, but they’ve been tipped before and fallen short so it’s difficult to know. With regards to their radical election manifesto, this type of populist politicking is classic Labour Party and unfortunately their mettle has never been tested with regards a majority Labour government, but one must hope that if an alternative is sought, with policies such as Labour have, people don’t look too far beyond them. The chance to rip it up and start again must appeal to dyed in the wool reds, finally without the anti-communist, anti-socialist dread of the Catholic Church hanging over them, with the power of FF broken amongst the working class, a class utterly failed by successive governments, the ground is fertile for Labour. They are the party for this election, the policies they can implement are not out of sync with their ethos, the social cuts will be balanced without a pandering to the upper class and the absentee landlord class who so often puppeteered FF policy. Gilmore wants power because it’s finally time to cut through the swath of mealy mouthed promises and same old-ness of the big two and actually have a go at implementing real and lasting change. The likelihood of a majority Labour government is quite slim, as the iron grip of generations of habit is still quite tight but of all the major players in this election they are certainly the ones with the most to win.

Of the three major leaders, Martin talks like a Taoiseach, Kenny looks like one and Gilmore wishes he could be one. Of the three major parties, FF should hang their head a sit on the bold step for the foreseeable future, casting envious glances and snide remarks from opposition benches, FG deserve another chance to come in and try implement their own brand of progressive centrist politics and Labour should be hoping to show people that the sky will not fall if they deviate from the FF-FG fulcrum, the crutch of the ballot box. All in all a race of peculiarities for a prize of little tangible worth, with three unproven leaders and a raft of radical proposals, all set against the backdrop of a massive and ongoing fiscal crisis. Here’s hoping for the rise of the ‘Independent’. 

09/02/11